Weekly Technical Reviews

A long time ago a mentor asked me to make 3 words from the word assume. After a few minutes I came up with ass-u-me. In the wake of the election many people are making assumptions about what will happen in the next Trump administration. It’s likely that much of the assumptions will, with the...

I thought the election would be close and that it might take 2 or 3 days before the outcome would be known. The election wasn’t close which saved the country more angst no matter who won. In the wake of the Republican landslide, the Democratic Party must muster the courage for self reflection...

Job growth plunged in October with just 12,000 jobs being created, although the full impact of the hurricanes can’t be known with certainty. Job growth was depressed in October due to the hurricanes but the revisions to August and September weren’t weather related. August was revised down by 81...

The Bank Credit Analyst (BCA) has analyzed employment data by each state and their analysis suggests the labor market isn’t as strong as it appears on the surface. BCA weights each state’s unemployment rate by the size of its labor force in order to create a synthetic national unemployment. BCA...

On Thursday the Census Bureau reported September Retail Sales. “Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $714.4 billion, an increase of 0.4% from the...

After the FOMC lowered the Funds rate by 0.50% at the September 18 meeting Wall Street quickly jumped on the 0.50% bandwagon and expected the FOMC would deliver another large cut at the meeting on November 6 or at the December 18 meeting. There were a number of reasons why this was unlikely....

Wall Street was expecting an increase of 150,000 jobs for September but was surprised when the actual number came in at 254,000. Other aspects of the report were positive as the Unemployment Rate dipped from 4.2% to 4.1% and, for the first time this year, the previous two months were revised up...

Although I was surprised that the FOMC lowered the Funds rate by 0.50% at the September 18 meeting, I didn’t think another 0.50% cut would happen at the November 7 or December 18 meetings as noted in the September 23 WTR. “ The FOMC voted to lower the Funds rate by 0.50% at the September...

In 1973 Miller Brewing ran its first “ Tastes Great! Less Filling !” commercial, which over time highlighted various sports luminaries and were fun to watch. At the September 18 meeting the FOMC provided their version. The FOMC...

William Dudley served as president of the New York Federal Reserve from January 27, 2009 until June 17, 2018. The president of the New York Fed gets to vote at every FOMC meeting while the other 11 district presidents rotate with 4 voting for one year. As such the New York Fed President is...