Technical Review

Watching the Economic Surprise Index

After the FOMC lowered the Funds rate by 0.50% at the September 18 meeting Wall Street quickly jumped on the 0.50% bandwagon and expected the FOMC would deliver another large cut at the meeting on November 6 or at the December 18 meeting. There were a number of reasons why this was unlikely. The economy continues to grow above its long term non inflationary growth potential of 1.8% according to the Federal Reserve, and inflation remains above the FOMC’s target of 2.0%. In addition, as I discussed in the September 23 WTR the vote to lower the Funds rate was really close. ““ The FOMC voted...

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