Technical Review

The Economic Surprise Index Is Weakening

The November Employment report showed an increase of 227,000 jobs, but most of the increase (61.6%) was concentrated in three sectors. Health Care added 54,000 jobs, Leisure and Hospitality contributed 53,000, and the number of government workers increased by 33,000. In the last 12 months these sectors (Healthcare 708K, Government 492K, Leisure 252K = 1,452 million) represented 64.3% of the 2.26 million increase in jobs. These sectors could be vulnerable in 2025. If the economy slows, Leisure and Hospitality job growth will slow as fewer people go out to eat, go to concerts, and travel....

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