Hear Jim's Thoughts
Hear Jim's Thoughts
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Weekly Technical Review
The Weekly Technical Review incorporates Macro Tides proprietary Major Trend Indicator (MTI) signal, technical analysis and macro fundamental analysis to chart the path of the major market indices.
The Weekly Technical Review discusses changes in technical indicators as it relates to equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. It looks at index positions as well as positioning in the various futures markets. You will see how sentiment indicators are used to identify when a trend change may be developing. Investors know going against the consensus can be challenging and difficult to make decisions, which is why incorporating our Contrary Opinion is such a valuable investment tool.
Most investors follow price trends which works fine until the trend changes; as they say “It works till it doesn’t!” Ironically, the end of most trends are accompanied by extreme sentiment and positioning, especially for trends that are easy to understand or have been in place for a period of time.
The combination of the MTI signal (longer trend), sentiment, positioning and technical will guide you to making informed decisions on where and when to be. The Weekly Technical Review provides specific buy and sell recommendations based on relative performance, price levels, and when a market has reached a potential turning point. When appropriate, our research will recommend short positions. Check out our sample Overview Report to learn more!
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Global Economic Report
“The trend is your friend” as the old Wall Street adage suggests and for good reason. Bull markets usually run for four years or more and bear markets typically last 17 months on average. The primary driver behind bull and bear market trends is monetary policy. Injections of liquidity support economic activity which powers bull markets, while the lowering of interest rates enable price multiples of earnings to expand.
Stock prices are a product of a number (‘x’) multiplied by corporate earnings, which is referred to as the Price/Earnings Ratio, or ‘P/E Ratio’. During a bull market, investors are willing to pay more for each dollar of earnings, allowing the P/E ratio to inflate, sending prices higher. Bear markets are typically the result of liquidity being withdrawn from the financial system; this activity frequently causes a recession. A lack of liquidity leads to higher interest rates which creates a reduction in the P/E ratio, thus lower stock prices.
Changes in monetary policy by any of the major central banks are not contained within that domestic economy, they spill over into the global economy. A change in the value of the U.S. Dollar or Euro will send ripples throughout the global economy that can have a significant effect on emerging economies and commodities. Having a deep understanding of monetary policy and the currency market is an integral part of forecasting market behavior.
Each month, Macro Tides Global Economic Report delivers in depth market analysis with a heavy emphasis on Monetary policy, traditional Economic analysis, a broad array of Technical momentum indicators (including his proprietary Major Trend Indicator), and numerous Sentiment measures. The Report highlights our positioning in the primary futures markets and covers basic charting analysis to quantify the trends in the Dollar & Euro currencies, Treasury bonds, Gold and Gold stocks, and the global equities markets, specifically the U.S., Europe, China and Emerging Markets.
