Fundamental Analysis

Global Economic Report

Labor Market Trends

Technical Review

Focus on the FOMC

Coming into this year Wall Street expected the FOMC to lower the Funds rate 6-7 times even though the Unemployment Rate was near a 50 year low and GDP averaged 3.1% in 2023. This was clearly not going to happen. The disappointment of fewer rate cuts was replaced by the prospect of Artificial...

Global Economic Report

Optimism Is High

Heading into 2024 Wall Street and most investors are positive about the economy and the outlook for stock prices. Inflation is expected to decline as consumer spending holds up. The drop in inflation will allow the FOMC to lower the Funds rate as economic growth...

Technical Review

Jobs, Inflation, the FOMC, and Chair Powell

There is always a Bull market in herd thinking on Wall Street, often allowing Wall Street to dismiss data that may not jibe with the ‘narrative’. Wall Street believes the economy will avoid a recession and the FOMC will cut the Funds rate 4-5 times in 2024. In November a 199,000 jobs were...

Global Economic Report

Monetary Policy in 2024

Wall Street is forecasting that GDP will slow in the first half of 2024 with growth averaging 0.35%, so a recession will be avoided. Wall Street expects the FOMC to cut the Funds rate by 0.25% in March and 4 more times by the end of 2024. The FOMC...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Secular Bear Market in Treasury Bonds

Consumer Price (CPI) inflation peaked in 1981 and then trended lower for 40 years, and after 1997, Core Consumer inflation held below 2.5%. In April 2021 inflation broke out of this 24 year base with the headline CPI pushing above 4.0% and the...

A Recession is Coming. Aggressive FOMC and Lending Tells the Story.

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks about the markets ahead of the key NFP non-farm payroll jobs report tomorrow. He discusses the recession risks and how they are growing with tight lending standards and an aggressive Fed hike campaign.

Jim also covers the...

CPI to come in HOT next week!

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow and talks about the market ahead of the CPI and FOMC the next couple weeks. Jim will be out on holiday and wanted to give you a good update ahead of these two key events and the roadmap to what you might expect.

He shows and walks...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Macro Factors and their impact on Monetary Policy, the Economy, and Financial Markets

Thank you for your interest in my analysis.

The cornerstone of my Tactical Strategy is the intersection of Economic Fundamentals, Monetary Policy, and Technical Analysis. The combination of these has helped me implement an effective Tactical Strategy that seeks to identify...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

Tactical Strategy

The cornerstone of my Tactical Strategy is the intersection of Economic Fundamentals, Monetary Policy, and Technical Analysis. Combining fundamental and technical analysis has helped me implement an effective Tactical Strategy. This combination was particularly effective in 2022.

Below...

Technical Review, Global Economic Report

A Secular 15 Year Bear Market Is Coming

Will You Be Ready?

The stock market rewards the Buy and Hold investment strategy during a Secular Bull Market as every cyclical bear market is followed by higher highs. The S&P 500 has repeatedly made a new all time high since the low in March 2009, despite a number of meaningful setbacks. Investors have...

Technical Review

Six Dominoes of Recession

Recessions are not random.

Stock values are determined by the level of interest rates and in large part by earnings. As earnings increase over time investors are often willing to pay a higher price for stocks during a bull market. This is why the Price / Earnings Ratio moves up until...

Special Reports

Global Economic Report

Recap 2007-2010

The following is a recap of the stock market analysis I provided in my monthly investment letter “Macro Tides” from early 2007 to April 8, 2010. My approach combines both fundamental analysis and technical analysis, which is unusual. Most economists and market strategists rely almost...

Global Economic Report

Fundamental Recap - 2007-2009

The following is a recap of the economic and stock market analysis provided in my monthly investment letter “ Macro Tides ” from January 2007 to December 2009. The majority of economists and financial advisors failed to see the credit crisis coming in 2007, and also failed to...

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