Technical Review

Inflation and the November Deficit

Last week the Treasury market was buffeted by two unfriendly inflation reports and news that the Federal budget deficit soared in November. Based on the Headlines for each report, inflation appeared to be worse than sticky. The prospect of an endless supply of Treasury debt weighed on Treasury bond prices. I thought the Headline CPI would tick up to 2.7% from 2.6% in October, while the Core CPI held steady at 3.30%. The month over month figures for both moved higher continuing the trend since the low in June, driven by increases in New and Used Car prices and Medical Care services. New...

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