The Bank Credit Analyst (BCA) has analyzed employment data by each state and their analysis suggests the labor market isn’t as strong as it appears on the surface. BCA weights each state’s unemployment rate by the size of its labor force in order to create a synthetic national unemployment. BCA believes their synthetic Unemployment Rate is less noisy than the official Unemployment Rate created from the Labor Departments’ Household survey. BCA refers to its Unemployment model as the Mel Rule after BCA analyst Melanie Kermadjian. After analyzing the September state employment data, BCA’s...
