Services comprise 80% of GDP so changes in the level of growth in services will determine when and how much the economy slows. One month doesn’t make a trend but it can offer a clue. In June the ISM Services Index declined from 53.8 in May to 48.8 in June a rather large drop in one month. According to ISM “ Services indicates the overall economy is contracting for the first time in 17 months.” Any reading below 50 constitutes a contraction and the ISM Services Index has been below 50 in 2 of the last three months....
