In July the labor market softened notably with job growth falling to 114,000 from 179,000 and the Unemployment Rate jumping from 4.1% to 4.3%. My guess was that the labor market would show some improvement in August as noted last week. “ I think the larger risk is that the Unemployment Rate will tick down to 4.2% and job growth will increase from 114,000 in July.” That assessment proved accurate as job creation improved to 142,000 and the Unemployment Rate dipped to 4.2%. Since the Unemployment Rate bottomed at 3.4% in April 2023, the trend has been up and the decline in August didn’t...
