Technical Review

Sticky Inflation and Cold Weather

In January the Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell from 3.4% to 3.1% but Core inflation held steady at 3.9%. Wall Street expected Headline inflation to drop to 2.9% and 3.6% for the Core. The sticky part was the monthly increase was 0.3% versus 0.2% in December for the Headline and 0.4% for the Core compared to 0.3% in December. In mid January the Federal Funds rate futures indicated Wall Street expected the FOMC to lower the Funds rate 7 times in 2024 (down -1.75%). After the CPI report the Federal Funds rate futures forecast just 3.5 rate cuts. In January the Federal Funds rate...

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