I thought the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) would change modestly from the September SEP. For the most part that was correct. I thought the projection for the Unemployment Rate would hold at 4.1%, the estimate for headline PCE would dip to 2.4% from 2.5% in September, and the Core PCE would fall to 2.5% from 2.6%. The December Median projection in the December SEP for the Unemployment Rate was 4.1% and 2.4% for the headline and Core PCE. I thought the projection for GDP would be marked up to 1.6% from 1.5% but it was lowered to 1.4%.
The most noteworthy projection was for...
